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Subjective probability models for lifetimes

by Fabio Spizzichino

"Bayesian methods in reliability cannot be fully utilized and understood without full comprehension of the essential differences that exist between frequentist probability and subjective probability. Switching from the frequentist to the subjective approach requires that some fundamental concepts be rethought and suitably redefined." "Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes details those differences and clarifies aspects of subjective probability that have a direct influence on modeling and drawing inference from failure and survival data. In particular, without a framework of Bayesian theory, the author considers the effects of different levels of information in the analysis of the phenomena of positive and negative aging." "The author coherently reviews and compares the various definitions and results concerning stochastic ordering, statistical dependence, reliability, and decision theory. Keeping the mathematical difficulty at a reasonable level, he offers a detailed treatment of different aspects of probability distributions for exchangeable vectors of lifetimes. This approach imparts a clear understanding of what the "probabilistic description of aging" really is, and why it is important to analyzing survival and failure data. Examples and exercises reinforce that understanding and new results suggest directions for future research."--Jacket.